Complete Picks and Results for the Past Week
One Week Update
Record: 16 - 2 (89%)
I started this project of offering picks on various NBA games on 2/6/13. You can see my picks each day here and here for accountability.
I don't know anything about betting but I do have some insight into basketball and potential inefficiencies that can be capitalized on in particular games.
I break my picks up into Advantage Plus Picks, Advantage Picks, No Advantage Picks, and Stay Away.
I only recommend placing bets on Advantage Plus Picks and Advantage Picks. These are games where my analysis has revealed an insight.
After a week, my record is as follows:
Advantage Plus Picks: 4 - 1 (80%)
Advantage Picks: 12 - 1 (92%)
No Advantage Picks: 14 - 13 (52%)
Combined Advantage Plus and Advantage Picks: 16 - 2 (89%)
Notes:
These are spread picks, meaning if the underdog loses by less than the margin set by Vegas, the bet will still win.
I split my picks up into four categories.
Advantage Plus Picks (previously called High Advantage or Pick of the Day) are the bets where my analysis has gleaned an advantage with high confidence. I recommend placing a 10% bet of your bankroll. So if your bankroll is $1,000 you should bet $100 on these picks.
Advantage Picks are picks where my analysis has gleaned some insight, or advantage, with confidence. I recommend placing a 5% bet of your bankroll. So if your bankroll is $1,000 you should bet $50 on these picks.
No Advantage Picks are picks where I have no special insight or advantage. I do not recommend placing these bets. I'm posting these picks to help keep track of the difference between picks where I have an insight, or advantage, and picks where I do not have an advantage. In other words, these picks are demonstrating that my recommendation is correct, only bet on Advantage Plus Picks and Advantage Picks. Therefore, win or lose, No Advantage Picks will not be counted in terms of overall record. The only picks that matter, and the only bets I recommend placing, are Advantage Plus Picks and Advantage Picks. The rest are no better, and probably worse, than guessing.
Stay Away are games where there is too much volatility, or too many unknowns, to even venture a pick.
Betting Lines are from the day of and are taken from https://www.vegasinsider.com/nba/odds/las-vegas/
Listed below are all the picks and results for the past week...
2/13/21 Spread Picks
Record 16 - 2 (89%)
Pick of the Day: 4 - 1
Pick of the Day Win Percentage: 80%
Advantage Picks: 12 - 1
Advantage Picks Win Percentage: 92%
No Advantage Picks: 14 - 13
No Advantage Picks Win Percentage: 52%
Combined Pick of the Day and Advantage Picks: 16 - 2
Combined Pick of the Day and Advantage Picks Win Percentage: 89%
Advantage Plus Picks
N/A
Advantage Picks
HOU at NYK
HOU -1.5
Pick: NYK
MIA at UTA
UTA -5
Pick: UTA
No Advantage Picks
(Don’t bet these. Am keeping track for comparison purposes)
IND at ATL
IND -1.5
Pick: IND
PHI at PHO
No Line Posted Yet
Pick: Take PHO if PHO is -4 or lower
Stay Away
BRK at GSW
BRK -4
Pick: Stay Away
Notes:
I split my picks up into four categories.
Advantage Plus Picks are the bets where my analysis has gleaned an advantage with high confidence. I recommend placing a 10% bet of your bankroll. So if your bankroll is $1,000 you should bet $100 on these picks.
Advantage Picks are picks where my analysis has gleaned some insight, or advantage, with confidence. I recommend placing a 5% bet of your bankroll. So if your bankroll is $1,000 you should bet $50 on these picks.
No Advantage Picks are picks where I have no special insight or advantage. I do not recommend placing these bets. I'm posting these picks to help keep track of the difference between picks where I have an insight, or advantage, and picks where I do not have an advantage. In other words, these picks are demonstrating that my recommendation is correct, only bet on Advantage Plus Picks and Advantage Picks. Therefore, win or lose, No Advantage Picks will not be counted in terms of overall record. The only picks that matter, and the only bets I recommend placing, are Advantage Plus Picks and Advantage Picks. The rest are no better, and probably worse, than guessing.
Stay Away are games where there is too much volatility, or too many unknowns, to even venture a pick.
Betting Lines are from the day of and are taken from https://www.vegasinsider.com/nba/odds/las-vegas/
2/12/21 Picks RESULTS
Record 16 - 2
Pick of the Day: 4 - 1
Pick of the Day Win Percentage:
Advantage Picks: 12 - 1
Advantage Picks Win Percentage
No Advantage Picks: 14 - 13
No Advantage Picks Win Percentage:
Combined Pick of the Day and Advantage Picks: 14 - 2
Combined Pick of the Day and Advantage Picks Win Percentage:
High Advantage Picks
NYK at WAS
WAS-1
Pick: NYK
Result: Bet Won
Advantage Picks
SAS at ATL
ATL -2
Pick: SAS
Result: Bet Won
No Advantage Picks
(I don’t recommend placing these bets. I’m posting these so I can compare to my Advantage and High Advantage Picks)
NOP at DAL
DAL -2
Pick: DAL
Result: Bet Won
LAC at CHI
LAC -6.5
Pick: LAC
Result: Bet Won
MIL at UTA
UAT -2
Pick: UTA
Result: Bet Won
MEM at LAL
LAL -7.5
Pick: LAL
Result: Bet Won
CLE at POR
POR -4.5
Pick: POR
Result: Bet Won
Stay Away
OKC at DEN
DEN -12
Pick: Stay Away
ORL at SAC
SAC -6.5
Pick: Stay Away2/12/21 Picks
High Advantage Picks
NYK at WAS
WAS-1
Pick: NYK
Advantage Picks
SAS at ATL
ATL -2
Pick: SAS
No Advantage Picks
NOP at DAL
DAL -2
Pick: DAL
LAC at CHI
LAC -6.5
Pick: LAC
MIL at UTA
UAT -2
Pick: UTA
MEM at LAL
LAL -7.5
Pick: LAL
CLE at POR
POR -4.5
Pick: POR
Stay Away
OKC at DEN
DEN -12
Pick: Stay Away
ORL at SAC
SAC -6.5
Pick: Stay Away
2/11/21 Picks RESULTS
Record 14 - 2
Pick of the Day: 3 - 1
Pick of the Day Win Percentage: 75%
Advantage Picks: 11 - 1
Advantage Picks Win Percentage
No Advantage Picks: 9 - 13
No Advantage Picks Win Percentage:
Combined Pick of the Day and Advantage Picks: 14 - 2
Combined Pick of the Day and Advantage Picks Win Percentage:
High Advantage Pick
N/A
Advantage Picks
MIA at HOU
MIA -3
Pick: MIA
Result: Bet Won
TOR at BOS
BOS -3.5
Pick: BOS
Result: Bet Won
No Advantage Picks
Don’t Bet These, Am Just Keeping Track
IND at DET
IND -3
Pick: IND
Result: Bet Won
PHI at POR
PHI -5.5
Pick: PHI
Result: Bet Lost
Stay Away
ORL at GSW____________________________________________________________________________________
2/11/21 Picks
Record: 12 - 2
Pick of the Day
N/A
Advantage Picks
MIA at HOU
MIA -3
Pick: MIA
TOR at BOS
Line isn’t posted yet
Pick: Anything BOS -6 or lower, pick BOS
No Advantage Picks
Don’t Bet These, Am Just Keeping Track
IND at DET
IND -3
Pick: IND
PHI at POR
PHI -5.5
Pick: PHI
Stay Away
ORL at GSW
Record:
Pick of the Day: 3 - 1
Pick of the Day Win Percentage: 75%
Advantage Picks: 9 - 1
Advantage Picks Win Percentage: 90%
No Advantage Picks: 8 - 12
No Advantage Picks Win Percentage: 40%
Combined Pick of the Day and Advantage Picks: 12 - 2
Combined Pick of the Day and Advantage Picks Win Percentage: 86%
Notes:
I split my picks up into four categories.
Pick of the Day is the bet or bets where my analysis has gleaned an advantage with high confidence. I recommend placing a 10% bet of your bankroll. So if your bankroll is $1,000 you should bet $100 on these picks. There won’t necessarily be a Pick of the Day every day and, some days, there may be more than one.
Advantage Picks are picks where my analysis has gleaned some insight, or advantage, with confidence. I recommend placing a 5% bet of your bankroll. So if your bankroll is $1,000 you should bet $50 on these picks.
No Advantage Picks are picks where I have no special insight or advantage. I do not recommend placing these bets. I have no insight or advantage into these games. I'm posting these picks to help keep track of the difference between picks where I have an insight, or advantage, and picks where I do not have an advantage. In other words, these picks are demonstrating that my recommendation is correct, only bet on Pick of the Day and Advantage Picks. Therefore, win or lose, No Advantage Picks will not be counted in terms of overall record. The only picks that matter, and the only bets I recommend placing, are Pick of the Day and Advantage Picks. The rest are no better, and probably worse, than guessing.
Stay Away are games where there is too much volatility, or too many unknowns, to even venture a pick.
I recommend only betting the Pick of the Day and Advantage Picks.
Betting Lines are from the day of and are taken from https://www.vegasinsider.com/nba/odds/las-vegas/2/10/21 Spread Picks RESULTS
Overall Record: 12 - 2
Pick of the Day
CHA at MEM
MEM -4
Pick: CHA
Result: Bet Lost
Advantage Picks
OKC at LAL
LAL -12
Pick: OKC
Result: Bet Won
No Advantage Picks
IND at BRK
BRK -2
Pick: BRK
Result: Bet Won
ATL at DAL
DAL -4
Pick: DAL
Result: Bet Lost
LAC at MIN
LAC -9
Pick: LAC
Result: Bet Lost
CLE at DEN
DEN -9.5
Pick: CLE
Result: Bet Lost
MIL at PHO
MIL -4
Pick: PHO
Result: Bet Won
Stay Away
NOL at CHI
NOL -3
Pick: Stay Away
Record:
Pick of the Day: 3 - 1
Pick of the Day Win Percentage: 75%
Advantage Picks: 9 - 1
Advantage Picks Win Percentage: 90%
No Advantage Picks: 8 - 12
No Advantage Picks Win Percentage: 40%
Combined Pick of the Day and Advantage Picks: 12 - 2
Combined Pick of the Day and Advantage Picks Win Percentage: 86%
2/10/21 Spread Picks
Overall Record (began on 2/6/21): 11 - 1
Pick of the Day
CHA at MEM
MEM -4
Pick: CHA
Advantage Picks
OKC at LAL
LAL -12
Pick: OKC
No Advantage Picks
IND at BRK
BRK -2
Pick: BRK
ATL at DAL
DAL -4
Pick: DAL
LAC at MIN
LAC -9
Pick: LAC
CLE at DEN
DEN -9.5
Pick: CLE
MIL at PHO
MIL -4
Pick: PHO
Stay Away
NOL at CHI
NOL -3
Pick: Stay Away
Notes:
I split my picks up into four categories.
Pick of the Day is the bet or bets where my analysis has gleaned an advantage with high confidence. I recommend placing a 10% bet of your bankroll. So if your bankroll is $1,000 you should bet $100 on these picks. There won’t necessarily be a Pick of the Day every day and, some days, there may be more than one.
Advantage Picks are picks where my analysis has gleaned some insight, or advantage, with confidence. I recommend placing a 5% bet of your bankroll. So if your bankroll is $1,000 you should bet $50 on these picks.
No Advantage Picks are picks where I have no special insight or advantage. I do not recommend placing these bets. I have no insight or advantage into these games. I'm posting these picks to help keep track of the difference between picks where I have an insight, or advantage, and picks where I do not have an advantage. In other words, these picks are demonstrating that my recommendation is correct, only bet on Pick of the Day and Advantage Picks. Therefore, win or lose, No Advantage Picks will not be counted in terms of overall record. The only picks that matter, and the only bets I recommend placing, are Pick of the Day and Advantage Picks. The rest are no better, and probably worse, than guessing.
Stay Away are games where there is too much volatility, or too many unknowns, to even venture a pick.
I recommend only betting the Pick of the Day and Advantage Picks.
Betting Lines are from the day of and are taken from https://www.vegasinsider.com/nba/odds/las-vegas/
Record:
Pick of the Day: 3 - 0
Pick of the Day Win Percentage: 100%
Advantage Picks: 8 - 1
Advantage Picks Win Percentage: 89%
No Advantage Picks: 6 - 9
No Advantage Picks Win Percentage: 40%
Combined Pick of the Day and Advantage Picks: 11 - 1
Combined Pick of the Day and Advantage Picks Win Percentage: 92%
2/9/21 Spread Picks RESULTS
Pick of the Day:
HOU at NOLA
-NOLA -4
Pick: NOLA
Result: Bet Won
Advantage Picks:
Boston at Utah
-UTAH -4
Pick: Utah
Result: Bet Won
NYK at MIA
-MIA -7
Pick: NYK
Result: Bet Won
No Advantage Picks:
Brooklyn at Detroit
-BRK -9
Pick: BRK
Result: Bet Lost
Golden State at San Antonio
-SA -1.5
Pick: SA
Result: Bet Lost
Philly at Sac
-PHI -4.5
Pick: PHI
Result: Bet Won
POR at ORL
-POR -4.5
Pick: ORL
Result: Bet Lost
Stay Away:
NA
Overall Record (began on 2/6/21):
Pick of the Day: 3 - 0
Pick of the Day Win Percentage: 100%
Advantage Picks: 8 - 1
Advantage Picks Win Percentage: 89%
No Advantage Picks: 6 - 9
No Advantage Picks Win Percentage: 40%
Combined Pick of the Day and Advantage Picks: 11 - 1
Combined Pick of the Day and Advantage Picks Win Percentage: 92%
Notes:
I split my picks up into four categories.
Pick of the Day is the bet or bets I feel most strongly about. There is not necessarily a “Pick of the Day” every day and, some days, there may be more than one.
Advantage Picks are picks where my analysis has gleaned some insight, or advantage, with these picks.
No Advantage Picks are picks where I have no special insight or advantage. I do not recommend placing these bets.
Stay Away are games where there is too much volatility, or too many unknowns, to even venture a pick.
I recommend only betting the “Pick of the Day” and “Advantage Picks.
Betting Lines are from the day of and are taken from https://www.vegasinsider.com/nba/odds/las-vegas/
2/9/21 Spread Picks
Overall Record (began on 2/6/21):
Pick of the Day: 2 - 0
Pick of the Day Win Percentage: 100%
Advantage Picks: 6 - 1
Advantage Picks Win Percentage: 86%
No Advantage Picks: 5 - 6
No Advantage Picks Win Percentage: 45%
Combined Pick of the Day and Advantage Picks: 8 - 1
Combined Pick of the Day and Advantage Picks Win Percentage: 89%
2/9/21 Spread Picks
Pick of the Day:
HOU at NOLA
-NOLA -4
Pick: NOLA
Advantage Picks:
Boston at Utah
-UTAH -4
Pick: Utah
NYK at MIA
-MIA -7
Pick: NYK
No Advantage Picks:
Brooklyn at Detroit
-BRK -9
Pick: BRK
Golden State at San Antonio
-SA -1.5
Pick: SA
Philly at Sac
-PHI -4.5
Pick: PHI
POR at ORL
-POR -4.5
Pick: ORL
Stay Away:
NA
Notes:
I split my picks up into four categories.
Pick of the Day is the bet or bets I feel most strongly about. There is not necessarily a “Pick of the Day” every day and, some days, there may be more than one.
Advantage Picks are picks where my analysis has gleaned some insight, or advantage, with these picks.
No Advantage Picks are picks where I have no special insight or advantage. I do not recommend placing these bets.
Stay Away are games where there is too much volatility, or too many unknowns, to even venture a pick.
I recommend only betting the “Pick of the Day” and “Advantage Picks.
Betting Lines are from the day of and are taken from https://www.vegasinsider.com/nba/odds/las-vegas/
2/8/21 Spread Picks RESULTS
Pick of the Day:
OKC at LA Lakers
-LA -12
Pick: OKC
Result: Bet Won
Advantage Picks:
Golden State at San Antonio
-San Antonio -1
Pick: Golden State
Result: Bet Lost
No Advantage Picks:
Houston at Charlotte
-Houston -2.5
Pick: Houston
Result: Bet Lost
Toronto at Memphis
-Toronto -2.5
Pick: Toronto
Result: Bet Won
Minnesota at Dallas
-Dallas -8.5
Pick: Minnesota
Result: Bet Won
Cleveland at Phoenix
-Phoenix -7.5
Pick: Cleveland
Result: Bet Won
Milwaukee at Denver
-Milwaukee -3.5
Pick: Denver
Result: Bet Lost
Stay Away:
Washington at Chicago
-Chicago -2
Pick: Stay Away
Overall Record (began on 2/6/21):
Pick of the Day: 1 - 0
Pick of the Day Win Percentage: 100%
Advantage Picks: 6 - 0
Advantage Picks Win Percentage: 100%
No Advantage Picks: 2 - 4
No Advantage Picks Win Percentage: 33%
Combined Pick of the Day and Advantage Picks: 7 - 0
Combined Pick of the Day and Advantage Picks Win Percentage: 100%
2/8/21 Spread Picks
Pick of the Day:
OKC at LA Lakers
-LA -12
Pick: OKC
Advantage Picks:
Golden State at San Antonio
-San Antonio -1
Pick: Golden State
No Advantage Picks:
Houston at Charlotte
-Houston -2.5
Pick: Houston
Toronto at Memphis
-Toronto -2.5
Pick: Toronto
Minnesota at Dallas
-Dallas -8.5
Pick: Minnesota
Cleveland at Phoenix
-Phoenix -7.5
Pick: Cleveland
Milwaukee at Denver
-Milwaukee -3.5
Pick: Denver
Stay Away:
Washington at Chicago
-Chicago -2
Pick: Stay Away
Notes:
I split my picks up into four categories.
Pick of the Day is the bet or bets I feel most strongly about. There is not necessarily a “Pick of the Day” every day and, some days, there may be more than one.
Advantage Picks are picks where my analysis has gleaned some insight, or advantage, with these picks.
No Advantage Picks are picks where I have no special insight or advantage. I do not recommend placing these bets.
Stay Away are games where there is too much volatility, or too many unknowns, to even venture a pick.
I recommend only betting the “Pick of the Day” and “Advantage Picks.
Betting Lines are from the day of and are taken from https://www.vegasinsider.com/nba/odds/las-vegas/
2/7/21 Spread Picks Results:
Pick of the Day:
None
Advantage Picks:
Utah at Indiana
-Utah -3.5
Pick: Utah
Result: Bet Won
Boston at Phoenix
-Phoenix -3.5
Pick: Phoenix
Result: Bet Won
No Advantage Picks:
Miami at NYK
-Miami -5.5
Pick: NYK
Result: Bet Lost
Sacramento at L.A. Clippers
-Clippers -8.5
Pick: Clippers
Result: Bet Lost
Stay Away:
Washington at Charlotte
-Washington -2.5
Pick: Stay Away
2/7/21 Spread Picks:
Pick of the Day:
None
Advantage Picks:
Utah at Indiana
-Utah -3.5
Pick: Utah
Boston at Phoenix
-Phoenix -3.5
Pick: Phoenix
No Advantage Picks:
Miami at NYK
-Miami -5.5
Pick: NYK
Sacramento at L.A. Clippers
-Clippers -8.5
Pick: Clippers
Stay Away:
Washington at Charlotte
-Washington -2.5
Pick: Stay Away
Notes:
I split my picks up into four categories.
Pick of the Day is the bet or bets I feel most strongly about. There is not necessarily a “Pick of the Day” every day and, some days, there may be more than one.
Advantage Picks are picks where my analysis has gleaned some insight, or advantage, with these picks.
No Advantage Picks are picks where I have no special insight or advantage. I do not recommend placing these bets.
Stay Away are games where there is too much volatility, or too many unknowns, to even venture a pick.
I recommend only betting the “Pick of the Day” and “Advantage Picks.
Betting Lines are from the day of and are taken from https://www.vegasinsider.com/nba/odds/las-vegas/
2/6/21 Spread Picks
Pick of the Day:
POR at NYK
-POR -1
PICK: NYK
Result: Bet Won
Advantage Picks:
TOR at ATL
-TOR -6
PICK: ATL
Result: Bet Won
SA at HOU
-HOU -1.5
PICK: SA
Result: Bet Won
GSW at DAL
-DAL -4
PICK: GSW
Result: Bet Won
DET at LA
-LA -14
PICK: DET
Result: Bet Won
No Advantage Picks:
DEN at SAC
-DEN -3.5
PICK: DEN
Result: Bet Lost
BRK at Philly
-Philly -1.5
PICK: Philly
Result: Bet Won
MIN at OKC
-OKC -1
PICK: OKC
Result: Bet Won
MEM at NOLA
-NOLA -1.5
PICK: MEM
Result: Bet Lost
Stay Away:
CHI at ORL
-ORL -2.5
PICK: STAY AWAY
MIL at CLE
-MIL -10.5
PICK: STAY AWAY
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